At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II. In determining that a trough occurred in November , the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
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No document with DOI "10.1.1.176.6987"
Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 17, | NBER
Data in this graph are copyrighted. Please review the copyright information in the series notes before sharing. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.
The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. There's a drop in the following five economic indicators: real gross domestic product , income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. Learn more about what a recession is, how you can sense if a recession is impending, plus the one benefit that recessions tend to bring.
A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession. The determination of a peak date in March is thus a determination that the expansion that began in March ended in March and a recession began. The expansion lasted exactly 10 years, the longest in the NBER's chronology.