Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, so the committee refers almost exclusively to monthly indicators. The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly. The committee generally studies two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: Because manufacturing is a relatively small part of the economy, the movements of these indicators often differ from those reflecting other sectors. Although the four indicators described above are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process. Figure 1 shows the recent movements of employment superimposed on the average movement over the past six recessions.
Eurozone recessions, a historical perspective
CEPR: Euro-Zone Economy in Recession Since Third Quarter of - WSJ
January 09, , by Elwin de Groot. This piece is the first in a series, with the next publication looking at how we gauge the current and future risk of a recession, bearing in mind the historical evidence for Eurozone member states. Since the summer months there has been increasing talk about the possibility of a new upcoming Eurozone recession. However, disregarding the probability of a future recession in the Eurozone for a moment we actually believe its likelihood is quite high , we first take a deep dive into the historical data. The aim of this piece is to get a better understanding of the historical incidence of recessions in the Eurozone, what their average duration is and whether there is a commonality or even some form of sequencing between member states.
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